2016 Election Predections

The 2016 US Presidential election is one of the most heightened elections in modern history. There are many election predictions by different news sites and nonprofit organization who predict the future depending on polling data, domestic and international issues, and many other factors.

Only looking at polling data provides an insight of the demographics (race, sex, religion, age, incomes) of the United States or certain States. Also history is able to fill in the gaps why the college-educated, millennials, women, religious and ethnic minorities, typically vote democratic, while white, Christian, old men vote republican. (See Pew Research Center data) These demographics are general trends, not a universal trait. History allows for the people to view past presidential elections, the outcome, voter turnout, demographic trends, and much more that helps determine which way a State’s electoral votes will go.

The important part I want to look at is the past six presidential election (1992-2012). According to Cook Political Report, 19 States have voted Democratic in the past six presidential elections accounting for 242 electoral votes, while 13 States have voted Republican accounting for 102 electoral votes. If Clinton receives these 19 State electoral votes, then she has a good chance of winning the election. She would only have to win Florida to secure 271 of the 270 votes. And if she secured states, who voted five of the last six presidential elections for Democratic Party, she would have 257 electoral votes. Even if Trump wins all of the States that have voted Republican at least four times out of six presidential elections, he would reach 219 electoral votes, which is 23 votes away from her “safe” 19 States and 51 votes away from the winning the election. More or less, there are safe democratic and safe republican states along with swing states.

cookpolitical, 1992-2012

Typically, the Democratic States are in the North East – the Washington, D.C. area and Maryland to Maine – and the West Coast from California to Washington, along with some north central States (Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota). The GOP captures the south, Midwest, and central regions. (See presidential election maps, American Presidency Project) The demographic changes in the party, mainly the GOP, is best described by E.J Dionne in Why the Right Went Wrong.

This election is different from past elections.The current U.S. presidential nominees of the two major parties have one of the highest disapproval ratings in modern history. And both of the candidates are not trusted at 56 percent.

The vitriolic rhetoric from Donald Trump is troubling to say the least. He has a short fuse, and claims he has a “winning temperament.” Ezra Klein, Vox Media reporter, pointedly described Trump:

He pairs terrible ideas with an alarming temperament; he’s a racist, a sexist, and a demagogue, but he’s also a narcissist, a bully, and a dilettante. He lies so constantly and so fluently that it’s hard to know if he even realizes he’s lying. He delights in schoolyard taunts and luxuriates in backlash

Trump’s other gift — the one that gets less attention but is perhaps more important — is his complete lack of shame. It’s easy to underestimate how important shame is in American politics. But shame is our most powerful restraint on politicians who would find success through demagoguery. Most people feel shame when they’re exposed as liars, when they’re seen as uninformed, when their behavior is thought cruel, when respected figures in their party condemn their actions, when experts dismiss their proposals, when they are mocked and booed and protested.

Trump doesn’t. He has the reality television star’s ability to operate entirely without shame, and that permits him to operate entirely without restraint. It is the single scariest facet of his personality. It is the one that allows him to go where others won’t, to say what others can’t, to do what others wouldn’t.

Trump lives by the reality television trope that he’s not here to make friends. But the reason reality television villains always say they’re not there to make friends is because it sets them apart, makes them unpredictable and fun to watch. “I’m not here to make friends” is another way of saying, “I’m not bound by the social conventions of normal people.” The rest of us are here to make friends, and it makes us boring, gentle, kind.

This, more than his ideology, is why Trump genuinely scares me. There are places where I think his instincts are an improvement on the Republican field. He seems more dovish than neoconservatives like Marco Rubio, and less dismissive of the social safety net than libertarians like Rand Paul. But those candidates are checked by institutions and incentives that hold no sway over Trump; his temperament is so immature, his narcissism so clear, his political base so unique, his reactions so strange, that I honestly have no idea what he would do — or what he wouldn’t do.

Klein hits on key factors why some republicans do not want to vote for Trump or even leaving the party in protest. His temperament is loose and unhinged, and should we have a president who has nuclear launch codes and perhaps ruins our international reputation with nations and world leaders? He has no foreign relations experience, and with the temperament and blatant racist and xenophobic remarks could have a rocky start with predominately-Muslim majority nations. Does it really makes sense to make Mexico to build a wall to keep people coming into the United States?

Is Clinton a better candidate than Trump? I would say yes for multiple reasons. Her temperament is cool and collective. She is respected among the international community. She has decades of political experience as First Lady, New York Senator, and Secretary of State.

What do the election analysis experts say? Different organizations use different ways to predict outcomes of baseball games and political elections. The prediction markets bet who will win, others plainly look at polls, and some use psephology a statistical analysis of polling data to predict elections.

ESPN FiveThirtyEight – Nate Silver’s 

Statisticians at FiveThirtyEight predict Hillary Clinton has a 83.4% chance of winning the election on August 8th, 2016 – 3 months away from the election. If Clinton captures States with an 80% chance or more of winning, she will receive 269 electoral votes. At 70% chance of winning, she will receive 332 votes.

They predict she will receive around 353 electoral votes and 49.2% of the popular vote. According to recent polls and analysis, Arizona  and Georgia might swing toward the Democratic ticket.

Center for Politics, University of Virginia Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Larry Sabato is the director of Center for Politics at University of Virginia who has proven to be very good at prediction elections. According to his biography, “98% accuracy rating in projecting all races for President, Senate, House, and Governor since 2000.” It continued:

For example, in President Obama’s 2008 election, the Crystal Ball came within one electoral vote of the exact tally in the Electoral College, while also correctly picking the winner of every single Governor and Senate race across the country. And in the Republican years of 2010 and 2014, the Crystal Ball was the first to forecast Republican takeovers of the House and Senate—months in advance of the November election.

He predicts Hillary will take 347 electoral votes while Trump will have 191 votes.

Sabato's - 2016 president prediction

Sabato's - 2016 senate prediction

Princeton Election Consortium

Princeton University neurologist Sam Wang uses psephology. He correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states and 10 of the 10 contested Senate races for the 2012 elections.

For the 2016 US presidential elections, Clinton has 343 electoral votes compared to 195 electoral votes. Also he predicts the U.S. Senate will be a 50-50 split, so the Democrats will gain 4 seats.

PEC - wang

The map provided by PEC adjust the US by the size of electoral votes, not geographical size. This is a more representative map of the U.S. for elections.

New York Times The Upshot

The election analysis at The Upshot predict Hillary has an 83% chance of winning as of August 8th, 2016. They also predict Hillary will garnish 46% of the vote, while Trump will get 39% according to a collection of polling data by the NYT.

They have a one of the best charts of all the pollsters opinions on the 2016 elections.

Cook Political Report

CookPolitical

National Public Radio

NPR predicts Clinton will receive 279 votes and trump 191 votes.

NPR prediction for june 26, 2016

Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report

The Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report predicts Clinton will have 332 votes, while Trump will have 191 votes.

RealClearPolitics

RCP gathers polling data from various organizations from Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Marist, PPP, Economist, YouGov, ABCNews, CBS, and others. They will pick a time frame, usually a week or so, and then average the percentages. As of now (August 15th at 6:52 a.m.), polls from August 1st – August 12th, Clinton is up on average 6.8 percentage points, at 47.8%, while trump gets 41%.

RCP believes for the presidential election there are 256 likely democratic electoral votes compared to 154 likely republican electoral votes, along with 128 toss-up votes. They also believe there are 47 likely Democratic Senate seats versus 44 likely Republican Senate seats along with 9 toss-ups. Most of the toss-ups are Republican controlled.

Roman’s Prediction

I predict Hillary could receive as much as 374 electoral votes compared to 164 votes for Trump. On the other end, I think Clinton could receive as little as 284 votes. The average number of electoral votes would be 320, while Trump will receive around 200. Trump has a great chance of receiving 191 electoral votes, an 80%-90% chance.

Also I believe the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate will gain democratic seats, roughly 10-15 for the House and 3-6 for the Senate, so afterward Democratic Party members will hold the White House, Senate, and 200 Representatives. The Senate has 34 seats up, 10 Democratic and 24 Republican, so the GOP has a lot more to lose, leading to more toss-up Senate Seats.

Conclusion

After taking all of that in, keep in mind polls are not perfect instruments as measuring elections, but they are snapshots of current emotions and feelings on either candidate running for office. Not all polls have the same methodology, so you can get different results favoring one candidate or the other as Romney supporters have done and supposedly Trump supporters are doing now. (See herehere, here, and here). The experts disagree with their numbers on both occasions.

As mentioned above, there are different methodologies to get outcomes, and regardless of process used, Hillary will win the White House and Democratic take over seats in the House and Senate. As of now, predict a Democratic take over, that is according to the experts who have been doing this for decades.

 

 

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